In the ample liquidity and strong investment demand, driven by gains in steel futures on Thursday gratifying, won positions on the stage by first name. Market participants believe that the early steel futures prices rose sharply, the market long and short game intense, especially in under the pressure of excess capacity, steel converting short-term upward trend continued.
Yesterday, on the rebar futures finished lower, the main contract in late 0909 to close at 3864 yuan / ton, down $ 5, or 0.13 percent, to 3765 yuan late wire futures / ton to close, up $ 4, or 0.11 %.
Good steel iron ore prices
The focus is still on the recent market price of iron ore negotiations, Rio Tinto and Japanese steel mills starting price of iron ore reached after Brazil's Vale, has also announced that it has with Japan's Nippon Steel Corporation, Pohang, Korea, in 2009 the company reached price agreements, down 28.2% powder ore, lump ore prices 44.47%, down 48.3% pellets, this fell less than expected, so good steel.
Recently, Australia's Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton joint venture between the two sides signed the Western Australian iron ore production project a non-binding agreement, this news came out, the Steel Association immediately issued a statement that the monopoly of this agreement with a strong color, the agreement The conclusion expressed strong opposition. China Steel Association said that China is Australia's largest importer of iron ore, "two extension" joint venture, related to the vital interests of Chinese enterprises. Market analysis, "two extension" global iron ore market and the joint venture will bring long-term steel market uncertainty.
Earlier, the Secretary-General Shan Shang China Steel Association in an interview with reporters, said that China will not make concessions to the iron ore negotiations, adhere to a long association ore prices 40% -45%, and has been prepared for the talks broke down.
Rising futures that, in the "two extension" announced iron ore joint venture will be established later after the announcement, China Steel Association bargaining pressure, iron powder bullish expected to increase. Analysts said that if China Steel Association was forced to accept the agreement, there will be the main raw materials as steel, iron ore prices a certain resistance.
Steel raised ex-factory price
As optimistic about market prospects and market demand, steel mills have raised prices, the steel price adjustment for a large number of steel or pre-made some contribution. June 11, Baosteel price policy introduced in July, generally rolled up 400 yuan / ton, cold-rolled generally rise 200 yuan / ton, pickling, galvanizing, coating electrical steel, also are 200-500 yuan / ton gains; Nippon Steel on June 10, the rebar prices down 30 yuan / ton, wire rod prices down 40 yuan / ton, plate, screw prices down 50 yuan / ton; Fujian Sanming Steel on June 11 for high line prices up 50 yuan / ton, steel prices up 30 yuan / ton.
Market participants believe that steel prices have officially optimistic about the steel market outlook as a quarter of China's steel prices generally low, with the advent of peak season demand, steel prices are expected to be supported.
Demand is expected to pick up
With the improvement of the domestic economic data, market demand for steel generally good. The latest economic data show that in May, the national real estate climate index was 95.94, 1.18 point increase over April. Guang Sheng Futures, said the real estate industry, steel accounts for a large proportion of steel consumption, stimulate the housing market rebound has a positive impact on steel consumption is expected to recover along with the real estate industry and the further acceleration of investment in fixed assets, construction in June Steel demand will be strong market demand improves, the next few months construction steel demand is expected to be started.
Rising futures concerned that the pattern of market supply and demand is also expected in a good direction. Now get to the real estate business will increase, the demand may help to activate the new growth point, after steel demand mainly from large-scale government investment in municipal infrastructure projects and, if followed by real estate operating rate increase, the demand for large-scale steel be released. Cement sales were higher than the current situation to normal levels last year, from a regional perspective, the central and western regions of the cement demand is growing rapidly, from a structural point of view, demand for real estate construction in the eastern region a higher proportion of cement demand in central and western regions of the cement demand for infrastructure demand is relatively more important, which is precisely in line with the demand for steel.
Pressure still exists excess capacity
Improved demand for steel, while steel production was still maintained at high level, which in April wire rod production increased by 10.26%, steel production increased by 17.85%, reaching a new high since 2004. National Bureau of Statistics data showed yesterday, May crude steel output reached 4,645.97 million tons, up 0.6%, equivalent to average daily crude steel output reached 1.4987 million tons, a record high during the year.
Under the pressure of excess production capacity of steel, steel export situation is still grim, latest customs statistics show that China's steel exports in May, 1.35 million tons in April, down over 60,000 tons compared to last year down 75.7%; while China imported 1.65 million tons of steel , compared with April, an increase of 3 million tons, up 23.6% over last year.
Rising futures that with short-term construction steel prices rose too fast, or too large, medium and small steel production enthusiasm has been stimulated, the release of capacity may be large, so the short-term price trend for steel may have some impact, but in the construction steel demand and inventory digestion rate from the previous month to speed up the case, it is difficult to change the trend of rising steel mid-expected second half of the steel will remain stable rising trend.
Data show that domestic wire stock 900,000 tons, compared with three months ago to reduce by 45%, steel stocks 3.19 million tons, compared with three months ago a 24% reduction. Over the last two months of construction and real estate industry is closely related to the rise of steel consumption, apparent consumption of wire rod in April for the 7.4628 million tons, an increase of 18.4%; steel apparent consumption of 9,669,300 tons, an increase of chain 0.69%, an increase of 20.02%, wire rod and rebar apparent consumption are large compared to last year's increase.